Monday, June 5, 2017

UPDATE. Trump underwater in latest Michigan poll

Source:  EPIC-MRA

Donald Trump's latest approval ratings in election swing states reveal how unpopular he has become.  (Newsweek, 6/3/2017)
The above bar graph shows the results of a question not related to Presidential job performance.  Just 35 percent of likely voters gave Trump a positive job performance rating, while 61 percent gave him a negative rating, according to the EPIC-MRA survey. The poll interviewed 600 likely voters in Michigan from May 20 through May 24. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.




5/31/2017 update, "Dear Donald, That was then, this is now.", starts here.

5-point shrinkage in 5 days.  And from your good buddies, no less!



Source:  Real Clear Politics (red arrows added)


5/27/2017 update, " Trump's second-best choice at the time was a 40% approval rating", starts here.

Rasmussen's current tracking poll has Trump at a 46% approval rating.

Trump's numbers in the Rasmussen poll are higher than in other surveys on the president's performance. Factoring in the Rasmussen report, an average of surveys on fivethirtyeight.com shows 40 percent of likely voters approve of Trump compared to 54 percent who disapprove. 


5/25/2017 update, "Trump polls:  Welcome to the latest fake news from Breitbart", starts here.




A surge?  At best, there's more of a leveling off when looking at Real Clear Politics' line graph of daily averages of Trump's approval/disapproval ratings.




5/24/2017 update, "Rasmussen keeps trying to pull Trump's head above water", starts here.

They regularly come to the rescue whenever Trump's approval polling average needs a little pick-me-up after reaching a new low point.

Source:  Rasmussen Reports via Real Clear Politics

Related reading:
Rasmussen poll of Trump approval rating today is heavily contradicted.  (Inquisitr, 4/16/2017)
CNN notes that Rasmussen also will not disclose how they determine who they call. Most pollsters use a method called random digit dialing, where homes of voters are called randomly, while other pollsters will conduct their polls from a privately maintained voter file. It is unclear which of these methods Rasmussen uses, and Rasmussen will not disclose their methodology. 
The Rasmussen poll of Trump’s approval also was not detailed in all aspects of his job, compared to other polls. Rasmussen only reported on job approval and disapproval, whereas other polls went deeper into issues related to the presidency, international affairs, Congress, and foreign policy.


5/16/2017 update, "Donald Trump's average disapproval rating hits all-time high",  starts here.


Unfortunately, most of Trump's base is doing the Little Peggy March.




"I Will Follow Him" by Little Peggy March, a one-hit wonder, debuted at #90 on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week ending March 23, 1963.  The song spent 14 weeks on the chart and spent 3 weeks at #1.


3/25/2017 update, "Trump disapproval rating takes a deeper dive in Rasmussen daily tracking poll" starts here.



3/12/2017 update, " Rasmussen can no longer keep Trump's head above water", starts here.


Donald Trump Rasmussen poll approval ratings dips below 50% for the first time.  (Inquisitr, 3/9/2017)
The Rasmussen Reports poll has been consistently the most friendly to Trump, with results from the daily tracking poll showing Trump with a positive net approval rating — that is, with his approval rating higher than his disapproval — every day since January 17, three days before the former reality TV host was inaugurated as the United States 45th president.


2/22/2017 update, "Where is the love?  Rasmussen finds less of it for Trump", starts here.

A drop of 9 percentage points in Trump's approval rating in less than 4 weeks.

Source:  Rasmussen Reports (Daily presidential tracking poll)




"Where is the Love" debuted at #68 on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week ending June 10, 1972.  It spent 13 weeks on the chart, 6 of them in the top 10, and peaked at #5.


2/17/2017 update, " Rasmussen and Fox News do all they can to boost Trump's approval ratings", starts here.

Gallup (at right) and Rasmussen are daily tracking polls.


2/11/2017 update, "Trump approval rating shrivels since Inauguration Day", starts here.

Source:  Gallup Daily

Related reading:
CNN notes that Rasmussen also will not disclose how they determine who they call. Most pollsters use a method called random digit dialing, where homes of voters are called randomly, while other pollsters will conduct their polls from a privately maintained voter file. It is unclear which of these methods Rasmussen uses, and Rasmussen will not disclose their methodology. The Rasmussen poll of Trump’s approval also was not detailed in all aspects of his job, compared to other polls. Rasmussen only reported on job approval and disapproval, whereas other polls went deeper into issues related to the presidency, international affairs, Congress, and foreign policy.

Donald Trump thinks approval ratings are rigged. That's scarier than you think.  (Vox, 1/18/2017)
So if Trump does dismiss these numbers, that means he’s ignoring one of the only things that can hold him back. Instead of taking polls as indicators — imperfect indicators, but still — that something is going wrong and he might want to pivot for his own good, he might not consider them at all. If he abuses the pardon power and his favorability plummets, he won’t notice. If he repeals Obamacare without replacing it and the country rebels, he won’t believe that Americans view that as a mistake.

2/8/2017 update, "Methodology or bias:  Rasmussen continues to be the outlier", starts here.


Why have Rasmussen polls been outliers for the past few months?  (Reddit)

The Rasmussen daily tracking poll is down from a peak of 59% on January 27.

Keep in mind that almost all of the final group of 2016 presidential polls were within the margin of error.  

But not Rasmussen.  (Margin of error:  +/-2.5%)



2/3/2017 update, " Rasmussen continues to prop up Trump's approval rating", starts here.


Original 1/30/2016 post, "At Rasmussen, it's sunshine, lollipops, and rainbows for Donald Trump", starts here.

That would be the daily tracking poll that shows Trump's approval rating considerably higher than anyone else's findings.


If nothing else, it gives Breitbart News a reason to concoct this happy/happy/joy/joy headline for its readers.


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